Research reports

Specification of dynamic models for examining resilience (Technical report): Can migration and job automation help address some of the challenges which population ageing poses to the labour markets in Europe? This technical report presents the design and initial analysis of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which will ultimately serve as a tool to examine the vulnerability of European socio-economic systems to external shocks. As an illustration, we use a case study of the German and Polish economies.

Resilience as a theoretical foundation for fertility dynamics (Theoretical framework): This working paper identifies patterns in which fertility dynamics reacted to two major crises: the Great Recession in the late 2000s and the Covid pandemic. While in some countries, fertility trends changed considerable, in others they quickly recovered to the pre-crises level. On the basis of these findings an analytical framework is presented to investigate resilience in fertility dynamics in Europe, including micro, meso and macro factors that can influence fertility. This framework forms the basis for future analyses in the FutuRes project.

Resilience in Policy Design - What makes policies resilience-enhancing? (Theoretical framework): This report establishes a conceptual framework for resilience at individual and institutional levels. The framework is tailored for effective policy-making and tested in a case study on the COVID-19 pandemic.

Theoretical foundation of the dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, heterogeneous households and family networks (Prototype): The model will quantify resilience of various pension reforms. This technical note explains how individual behavior interacts with macroeconomic and institutional constraints, considering idiosyncratic risks.